Risk & Backtesting Disclosure
Options Strategy Hub shows what a set of rules would have done on past market data. That is useful for research and dangerous to mistake for a forecast. This page explains the limits.
Read this before relying on any result
Options Strategy Hub is research and simulation software made by SpyWave LLC. It is not a broker, broker-dealer, investment adviser, financial adviser, commodity trading advisor, signal service, trade-execution platform, money manager, custodian or fiduciary. We do not hold your funds, we do not execute trades, we do not recommend strategies, and nothing in the Service is investment, legal or tax advice. You alone decide whether and how to trade, and you alone bear the results.
Backtests are hypothetical
Every result the Service produces is a simulation of what a set of rules would have done on historical data under the assumptions you configured. No real orders were placed. Hypothetical performance has inherent limitations: it is prepared with the benefit of hindsight, it does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. Historical performance, simulated or real, does not guarantee future performance.
Testing many variations of a strategy on the same historical period and keeping the best one (overfitting, or curve-fitting) produces results that look better than the strategy's true expectation. The AI refinement feature and the comparison tools make it easy to do exactly that. A better number on the same dates is one sample, not proof.
What the simulation assumes, and why live results differ
- Fills. Simulated entries are filled at the ask or between the mid and the ask, exits at the bid or between the bid and the mid, plus the slippage and commission you configure. Displayed fills are modelling assumptions, not quotes you could have traded at, and are not a promise of executable prices.
- Spreads, liquidity and market impact. Bid/ask spreads, the size available at a quote and the effect of your own order are not fully modelled. Options with wide spreads or thin liquidity can fill far from the simulated price, or not at all.
- Latency and timing. Rules are evaluated on completed bars; real decisions and order routing take time. The 1-second replay prices fills from a second-by-second quote tape with a configurable delay — it is still a simulation of a historical tape, not live execution.
- Data quality. Results depend on the completeness and accuracy of the historical market data fetched from Databento and on how the application constructs the option chain from it. Gaps, bad prints, early closes, corporate events and vendor corrections can change results.
- Configuration. Date window, expiry selection, strike window, premium and Greek filters, exit rules, risk limits and sizing all change the outcome. Small changes can produce large differences.
- Costs. Commissions, fees, assignment and exercise costs, and taxes affect real returns and may be larger than the values you configured.
Options are risky; 0DTE options especially
Options can lose their entire value. Buying options exposes you to time decay, rapid price moves and total loss of the premium paid. Options expiring the same day (0DTE) move extremely fast, can go to zero within minutes, and are particularly unsuitable for anyone who cannot afford to lose the full amount at risk. Before trading options you should read the options disclosure document provided by your broker and the Options Clearing Corporation and understand the risks.
AI Strategy Analysis
The AI features explain a run, propose changes and draft strategies from a description. The AI can make mistakes, misunderstand the data, invent figures and propose changes that make a strategy worse. The application checks the AI's citations against your run and labels each statement as a fact, a derived observation, a hypothesis or unknown, but it cannot make the reply correct, and the AI often reasons from incomplete historical evidence. AI output is a research assistant's suggestion for you to test, not investment advice, not an autonomous portfolio manager and not a basis for executing trades. It does not guarantee improved performance.
Federal Reserve event data
The event dataset used for event-aware rules and analysis is compiled from public official sources and may be incomplete, delayed or corrected after the fact. Classifications of outcomes are editorial judgments. How the market reacted to a past event does not predict how it will react to the next one.
Errors and your responsibility
Software has bugs; the Service is in a Founding Beta and may contain errors in its engine, data handling, analytics, exports or AI integration. Review every result independently, check it against your own records and sources, and consult a licensed professional before making any financial decision. You are responsible for every trading decision you make and for complying with the laws and the broker rules that apply to you.
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